In a poker tournament each additional chip that you win is ‘worth’ slightly less than the previous one. While this can seem counter-intuitive at first glance it becomes clear when we look at chips in relation to the fixed payout structure of poker tournaments. This article first shows the math behind the changing value of chips. We then look at some ways in which this can affect your strategy at the tables.
Imagine that you have reached the last 4 players in a poker tournament. Of the 5,000,000 chips in play you have accumulated 4,000,000 – a healthy lead. However the prize pool for this tournament was spread among the top 50 finishers, with the first place paying 20% of the total prize pool. While your ‘equity’ in the prize pool is huge, the proportion of your equity to your chips is less than at the start of the game.
With a prize pool of $1 Million – and 500 participants who started with 10,000 chips.
- At the start of the tournament each chip is worth (10000/($1,000,000/500)) = $0.20c
- At the end of the same tournament each chip is worth (4,000,000/($400,000/4) = $0.025c
So, your overall equity in the prize pool has increased, yet the value of each chip you hold is significantly lower than before. The fundamental strategy consideration here is that each chip you lose has a higher ‘value’ than each additional chip you win.
The changing value of chips leads to several strategy adjustments that advanced players make. The first of these is to be inclined to bet an amount that is more likely to be called when holding a strong hand on the river – rather than an amount that would appear to maximize your overall expectation.
For example you hold the nut flush after the river and are first to bet. You think that a bet of 500 chips will be called 90% of the time (giving you an expectation on the last bet of +450 chips). You also think that a bet of 2000 chips will be called 25% of the time giving you an expectation of +500 chips in addition to the current pot.
Profitable cash game play would suggest taking the 2000 chip option – as this will maximize your profit over time. In light of the changing value of tournament chips you may be better off making the bet that is more likely to be called, since the diminishing value of the extra chips, combined with your need to stay ahead of the blinds become paramount in a poker tournament.
Likewise slow playing a big hand becomes less desirable in a tournament setting. By slow-playing you are running a small risk of being out-drawn in order to maximize your overall expectation from the hand. In a poker tournament losing those chips would be significantly more costly in terms of their ‘true value’ than the value of the extra chips you might win. Slow-playing has its place in tournament play – however your inclination should be to win the current pot where possible rather than run the risk of losing chips to increase overall expectation.
To summarize, each chip you win in a poker tournament is worth slightly less than the last. This, combined with the need to accumulate chips throughout the tournament, lead to some advanced strategy adjustments. Maximizing your chances of winning the pot can become more important than maximizing your absolute expectation from the current hand. Applications of this concept relate to river bet sizing, slow playing and to many other common poker situations.
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